First, a little something that may surprise you. Over 50 years later, the Korean war technically is
still going on. The North and
Koreans on both sides of the DMZ are pretty much used to this perpetual state of slight unease, but most of them would still like to see the country reunified. Of course, each side thinks of reunification as being under its own government, just as countries involved in wars usually define peace as victory, not as surrender. So whether real reunification is ever going to happen is a bit questionable. Still, it's something that most South Koreans at least pay lip service to, and anything that seems to be progress toward moving the sides closer together plays pretty well with the public. Right at the end of the 20th century, there were some hints that it might really happen. Former South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2000 for his "Sunshine Policy," which got the North and South talking. Tourists from the South were paying big bucks (some of which went right to the North's government) to see the sights at the North's Mount Kumgang. Both sides had started rebuilding the railroad line which connects them across the DMZ. North Korean dictator (excuse me, "leader") Kim Jong Il also authorized the Kaesong Industrial Region, a Hong Kong-style (allegedly) independently governed manufacturing center in North Korea. Now that was what South Korean business people had in mind for "reunification" -- dirt-cheap sweatshop labor, far cheaper than even in China or Vietnam. At one point somewhere between 80 and 90 South Korean companies -- different sources give different numbers -- were paying more than 32,000 hard-working, submissive North Korean workers. Oops, correction, they were paying the North Korean government. In US dollars, mind you, and if that doesn't make your eyebrows go up, how about what they were paying -- US$57.50 per month. I know a couple of people who make that much per hour. It didn't last. Here's how it all came apart, and what that has to do with you. Step 1: In 1994, the US, Japan, and South Korea had reached an agreement with North Korea. This is usually called the Agreed Framework, and it was mostly Jimmy Carter's doing. The deal was that the other countries would help North Korea build new light water nuclear reactors (which couldn't make bomb-quality nuclear material) if they'd shut down and dismantle their old breeder reactors (which could). While the new reactors were being built, they'd send the north extra fuel oil, something they needed pretty badly -- North Korea, like South Korea, has no oil, gas, or coal deposits to speak of. Most reports just say that in the early 2000s, "the deal fell apart." What they don't usually mention is how that happened. Because Kim broke the agreement? Well, yes. But much as I hate to say it, the US broke it first. After they signed the treaty, the US Congress wouldn't authorize their share of the funds needed to build the reactors, even though most of the money was coming from South Korea and Japan. Eight years went by, and essentially nothing had been constructed. Step 2: The US got G W Bush as president. In one of many speeches designed to raise Republican political capital at home without a lot of concern for their international reception, Bush made his infamous "Axis of Evil" remark, putting Iraq, Iran, and North Korea in the same category. In 2002 Bush then told the news media he loathed Kim Jong Il. This is not the way you build nice, positive relationships with people, certainly not with Asians. Step 3: The US war in Iraq. It's hard to say whether Kim was frightened at the idea that he might be next, or whether he decided to take advantage of this major distraction for the US. Either way (or both), challenged by the US, North Korea admitted in October 2002 that they were indeed thinking about restarting their breeder reactors, and had cranked up a new nuclear weapons program. The US responded by cutting off the Agreed Framework fuel oil shipments. Since that oil was going to fuel power plants, North Korea had a perfect excuse to go ahead and restart their breeder reactors, which, conveniently, also produce electric power. Step 4: Endless on-again, off-again 6-nation (North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, US) negotiations begin. And end. And start again. And end. Et cetera. Step 5: North Korea started making louder machine-gun noises. On 4 July 2006, they test-fired their new long range Taepodong-2 missile. It blew up 40 seconds after it took off -- that was real impressive. At the same time, they also launched several more smaller missiles into the East Sea (Sea of Japan). Look at us! We have weapons! In early October of 2006, North Korea bragged that they'd tested a nuclear device, though most experts in the rest of the world, watching their instruments, wondered why it seemed so feeble. In the spring of 2009, North Kora fired yet another missile over -- make that into -- the Pacific Ocean. They actually said that it was a rocket that launched a satellite into orbit, a claim they also made for a similar 1998 missile launch. (Apparently satellites now operate from the bottom of the sea. ;-) They also set off another nuclear test, which seems to have been a bit more successful for them. (I think that's great. The more of their plutonium they waste in showing off, the less they have for making trouble.) And they helped the US with its Independence Day fireworks by attacking the ocean floor with more missiles -- 4 short range and 7 long range ones. Step 6: South Korea elected a much more conservative president late in 2007. Lee Myung-Bak got serious about requiring the North to keep their part in the long-running 6-way talks (see Step 4 above) and cut off North Korea's food, fuel, and economic aid. Sometime in early to mid 2008, the North's leader Kim Jong Il apparently had a stroke, which gave the hard-liners in his military a little more influence. Finally, a bunch of South Koreans, mostly religious nuts, took to standing just south of the DMZ and, when the winds were blowing north, floating balloons into North Korea with thousands of waterproof leaflets telling North Koreans that their beloved leader was living like a king while they starved. That really yanked the North's generals' chains. The North got cranky. So now the tours to Mount Kumgang are shut down, and so is the railroad line. North Korea threw out most of the South Korean business people working at Kaesong, and and limited the number of border crossings. They've abrogated the nuclear test ban treaty, not that it ever really stopped them. They threaten US spyplanes in international airspace and, more recently, expanded that to include civilian aircraft (which is why your flight into Incheon airport will now take about an hour longer than it would have a couple years ago). After years of threats to scuttle the terms of the 1953 armistice that suspended the Korean war, they claimed in January of 2009 that this time they really meant it, they were really going to stop paying attention to the Northern Limit Line, this time for sure. The Northern Limit Line is the sea border between the North and South, unilaterally drawn by the US when the Korean War armistice was signed. Odd that North Korea makes such a fuss about it when they've never officially recognized it. Now and again they send a ship across, like a little kid putting his toe across the forbidden threshold of his older brother's bedroom door. This is actually where North Korea has caused the most obvious and serious trouble. The most recent incident was in March of 2010, when a South Korean ship split in two and sank, killing 46 South Korean sailors. As I write this, it's been pretty conclusively shown that a North Korean-made torpedo destroyed the ship. This, to put it bluntly, is an act of war. However, before you freak over that, you have to realize that it's SOP for NK. True, this is about the worst (deadliest) instance so far, but the North has been doing this for years, and they haven't managed to rekindle the Korean war yet. In November of 2009, a North Korean ship crossed the line into South Korean waters. A South Korea gunship fired warning shots. The North's ship fired on the South's ship, so the South Korean ship returned fire. The North's ship was damaged and some reports say one of the North's sailors was either killed or injured. As usual, North Korea denied that they'd entered South Korean waters. Something similar happened in June of 2002. A South Korean gunboat's crew challenged a North Korean ship that had crossed the line, and they got into a scrap. That time, the North Koreans managed to sink the South Korean ship, killing four South Koreans and injuring 19. They had a similar scuffle in June of 1999. Going back a bit further, in 1996 North Korea beached a sub on the East Sea shore. It was captured; you can go see it near Kangnung (Gangneung) if you like. So, yeah, not exactly what most of us would call a strategy for peaceful coexistence. And a definite re-freezing of the early-2000s thaw between north and south. Kim Jong Il also maintains one of the world's largest armies -- over a million soldiers, by most accounts. He's demonstrated that he'd rather let his citizens literally starve -- by the millions -- than cut his military budget. Actually, it's a little unclear whether he's entirely in control of his armies. One of the North's concerns in the six-nation talks may strike you as a bit odd. Kim Jong Il was upset about the fact that UN sanctions put in place after his 2006 nuclear test cut off his supply of imported luxuries such as Western booze. It turns out that one way he keeps his military leaders calm and cooperative is by giving them expensive gifts. Kim and his army live in their own world. Asked about the 2006 missile launches, Ryol Han Song, deputy chief of North Korea's mission to the United Nations, answered: "We diplomats do not know what the military is doing." And since Kim's (apparent) stroke in the summer of 2008, nobody's entirely sure how much he's really in control of his country. Is this bad or good? Um, hard to say. In the midst of all this uncertainty, the US has added more by reducing its military force in South Korea, from 37,000 to 28,500. This was mostly a Bush administration project, possibly to punish Korea for voting in a more-or-less progressive president in 2002, and/or for their foot-dragging on sending troops to Iraq. However, so far there's no indication that the new (2009) US administration is going to change anything. Time will tell. The future of Kim Dae Jung's "Sunshine Policy" is looking (you should pardon the pun) rather cloudy.
So the question remains. Is North Korea going to make serious trouble? If you re-read what I wrote above, you'd probably think I'm worried about it. But I'm not. Nor are most South Koreans. OK, some of them worry a little now and then, but by and large they don't really take North Korea very seriously. Kim and his gang been making this kind of noise off and on for years, glowering and making threats to turn South Korea and Japan into a "sea of fire." It hasn't happened yet. Most folks in the South worry more about the North just plain collapsing, and the resulting flood of desperate refugees taking their jobs. Is Kim Jong Il insane? Some people say so. I don't think he is. But he is devious. He's a bit unstable, certainly unpredictable, definitely stubborn. He really likes being the boss, and wants to stay that way. He's not stupid. Kim and his generals know full well that if North Korea ever breaches the DMZ again and launches a major invasion, or sends missiles into South Korea or Japan, the US has the firepower to turn North Korea into rubble -- without even using nukes. That, my friend, ought to make anybody's finger stop short of pushing the button. While Kim might be able to survive an attack in one of his infamous underground bunkers, he wouldn't have much to look forward to when he finally emerged from hiding. But negotiate? Barely. Every time one side in the talks (US or North Korea, which despite the presence of the other 4 nations are the main players) relaxes a little somewhere, it clamps down somewhere else. Can the US and South Korea trust North Korea? Can North Korea trust us? (Probably "no" on both counts.) The talks haven't gone anywhere and aren't likely to until each side is sure the other is negotiating in 100% good faith. Don't hold your breath. Meanwhile, North Korea stumbles toward full membership in the nuke club. For now it's still amusing to watch their goose-strutting as they try to get there. As far as what all this means to you as a one-year (or more) resident of Korea, it comes down to this. There's no place in the world that's 100 percent safe. Some places are safer than South Korea. Some are much more dangerous. You have to decide for yourself whether you're OK with the level of risk in South Korea. Here's a little more reading, in case your eyes haven't yet glazed over. Get through all this and you should know about as much about North Korea as anybody currently advising the US government.
So what's the bottom line? Should you worry about North Korea or no? Well, let's put it this way. Margaret didn't hesitate to go to Korea on this account in 2000, and we haven't once hesitated to visit since. If you go to teach in South Korea, you should be carrying a mad-money, Get Out of Korea Credit Card anyway, in case your job goes sour. This means that you should be able to book a flight out in a hurry if you really have to. Still concerned? Don't work in Seoul. Look for a job in southern Korea or on Cheju Island, farther away from North Korea.
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